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Golden Ten Data, June 23 — CMB International released a research report stating that at this meeting, the Federal Reserve repriced its reaction function in the Waller era. The Federal Reserve will completely abandon forward guidance; the policy framework will become more flexible, making decisions based on precise real-time data, balance sheet transmission and other factors, and will focus more on the credibility of the 2% inflation target. The bank still believes that the probability of a Fed rate hike within the year is quite low. At present, it is mainly guiding the market to reprice the rate path through hawkish communication, using the tightening of financial conditions to achieve part of the rate hike effect in advance. With the U.S. economy slowing and inflation falling in the second half of the year, the bank believes that expectations for policy easing have the prospect to rise significantly.

Spot gold is on the verge of breaking below the $4,126 per ounce support level, with the next downside target pointing to the $4,063–4,100 range. The current gold price is moving within a descending channel, and the overall downward trend remains steady.From a wave structure perspective, the previous rebound was driven by Wave 4 (d wave), which is now facing downward reversal pressure from Wave 5 (e wave). Technically, this structure is not yet complete and bearish momentum continues to build.The resistance level is at $4,164. If the gold price can effectively break above this level, it may trigger a rebound with the initial target in the $4,187–4,203 range. However, before breaking this resistance, the short-term trend remains biased to the downside.At the current stage, $4,126 is a key line of defense for the bulls. If this level is effectively breached, a pullback to below $4,100 may accelerate. Overall, under the dual pressure of the descending channel and the wave structure, gold prices still face further downside risk in the short term.

The Bank of Japan: The core CPI excluding special factors rose by 2.7% in May, and the core-core CPI excluding special factors increased by 2.1% in May.