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The Australian dollar faces dual pressures from geopolitical risks and hawkish policies—how should traders position themselves?

On June 22 local time, the media committee of the Iranian negotiation delegation released the key content and main points of agreement reached in the first round of US-Iran talks in Geneva:1. Under pressure from the Iranian delegation, since the afternoon of June 20, the fragile ceasefire in Lebanon has so far been maintained. In order to consolidate this ceasefire, a supervisory mechanism called the "Conflict De-escalation Group" will be established, with Iran participating in it. This mechanism means that Iran will formally enter Lebanon's security architecture. In recent months, the US has tried to exclude Iran from Lebanese affairs, while Israel has no place in this mechanism.2. With regard to the management of the Strait of Hormuz, in order to ensure the gradual reopening of the strait, a communication hotline will be established so that Iran can be directly contacted to resolve issues during implementation. This arrangement is interpreted as a certain recognition of Iran's sovereignty status in the Strait of Hormuz.3. According to the joint statement, three working groups will be formed, responsible for the nuclear issue, Iranian sanctions, and the supervisory mechanism, respectively, and will begin work after Article 13 of the memorandum of understanding begins to be implemented. The content of Article 13 includes: a comprehensive ceasefire (especially on the Lebanon front), lifting the maritime blockade, unfreezing Iran’s frozen assets, and granting waivers for Iran's oil and petrochemical products. Until then, Iran will not enter the final stage of negotiations.4. In this round of talks, Iran and Qatar also signed a memorandum of understanding on the implementation mechanism for unfreezing Iranian assets.5. During the negotiations, in accordance with Article 10 of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control has issued a 60-day waiver of sanctions on Iranian oil, petrochemicals, and related products. This means that Iran can officially sell oil to customers and receive payments through the central bank’s official mechanisms. (CCTV International News)

Bitunix analysts pointed out that the global market's focus has shifted from geopolitics to Federal Reserve policy. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh is driving the weakening of forward guidance and the dot plot mechanism, resulting in increased policy uncertainty. Global capital is flowing back to the US dollar system, US Treasury yields are rising, and expectations of further Fed rate hikes continue to suppress the valuation of the crypto market.