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Bitunix Analyst: Market Starts Trading 'Peace Expectation', but True Test Comes from Liquidity and High-Rate EnvironmentBlockBeats News, June 12th. A major turning point in the Middle East situation has occurred. After threatening military action against Iran, President Trump stated that the US-Iran agreement is close to completion and could be signed as early as this weekend. Qatar, the UAE, and Pakistan have simultaneously intervened in mediation, and the market has started to price in the possibility of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a de-escalation of the regional situation. However, the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the negotiation team still deny that a final agreement has been reached, and the Iranian military remains on high , indicating that geopolitical risks have not been fully resolved.
From a market perspective, the most significant change at the moment is not the end of the war but rather the beginning of efforts to price in the post-war order. US Treasury Secretary Benson has even mentioned using Iran's frozen assets to compensate Gulf countries for losses, indicating that some discussions on the US side have shifted from conflict escalation to post-conflict reconstruction and regional order arrangement. However, core issues such as the nuclear issue, sanction relief, and Israeli security demands remain unresolved, and the market still faces the risk of agreement renegotiation.
At the same time, another potential change at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is also worth noting. The market expects that the new Chair, Kevin Warsh, may gradually downplay forward guidance and the dot plot, returning more pricing power to the market. Against a backdrop of uncertainty in inflation and growth prospects, this implies that the future interest rate path may rely more on market judgment, presenting opportunities for both bond yield and risk asset volatility to rise further.
For the crypto market, the real pressure still comes from the funding side. Data shows that cryptocurrency ETFs have seen net outflows of $405 million in the past week and $5.49 billion in outflows over the past month. Even though geopolitical risks have temporarily eased, institutional funds have not substantially returned, and the market is still in a tug-of-war stage between liquidity repair and a high-interest rate environment.