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Grayscale: On-chain Metrics Show Bitcoin Is Undervalued, But Has Not Yet Reached Previous Cycle LowsBlockBeats News, June 10th, According to the latest report "Is Bitcoin Cheap Yet?" released by Zach Pandl, Director of Grayscale Research, as the Bitcoin price dropped below $60,000 and hit a new low in this cycle, a comprehensive analysis of various on-chain valuation indicators indicates that Bitcoin is currently undervalued. However, the attractiveness of this valuation is still weaker than the bottom of the previous market cycle (such as post-FTX collapse).
The report points out that a comprehensive valuation model composed of three on-chain indicators—NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss), Price/CVDD, and Market Cap/Thermo Cap—shows that the Bitcoin price is significantly below its long-term average. Nevertheless, Grayscale believes that the decline in this bear market cycle may be shallower than in previous cycles, due to reasons such as the relatively moderate rise in the previous bull market and market structure improvements resulting from the adoption of spot ETFs, wealth management platform allocations, and institutional adoption.
Regarding future trends, Grayscale believes that investors should pay close attention to two short-term catalysts: the progress of the U.S. "CLARITY Act" in the Senate and whether high-leverage Bitcoin holders can stabilize their balance sheets. The report states that institutions remain optimistic about the eventual passage of the CLARITY Act; however, it predicts that there is still considerable uncertainty about the market's perception of the outcome. The current price level provides a Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) opportunity for long-term investors, while short-term traders may wait for further clarity on the CLARITY Act before making decisions.
