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(1) StoneX Senior Market Analyst Matt Simpson stated that the U.S. employment data to be released later today may provide a bullish catalyst for USD/JPY. He pointed out that the non-farm payroll report has shown unexpected gains in the past two months. (2) Against the backdrop of improvement in the Institute for Supply Management survey, with only a slight increase in the prices paid component of the Services PMI, employment growth may continue to support the narrative of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates for a longer period, and may even reignite discussions of another rate hike. (3) Simpson added that this will provide a bullish catalyst for USD/JPY before the weekend.

ANZ Research analysts stated in a research report that, on one hand, “the ceasefire announced by Israel and Lebanon has raised hopes that one of the key conditions for an agreement between Iran and the United States has been met.” However, on the other hand, “there is hardly any sign that the relationship between the two sides is getting closer,” the ANZ Research analysts said. The ANZ Research analysts pointed out that U.S. President Trump stated that negotiations have entered the final stage, but Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said the talks have stalled. Near-month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 0.2%, quoted at $92.84 per barrel.

Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare released data on Friday showing that real wages, adjusted for inflation, rose by 1.9% year-on-year—accelerating from the revised 1.4% in the previous month, surpassing economists’ expectations of 1.7%, and marking the longest consecutive monthly rise since late 2021. Nominal wages increased by 3.5% year-on-year, also exceeding the market consensus of 3.1%. Basic salaries rose by 3.4%. The Bank of Japan’s key metric, which tracks full-time employees’ wages to avoid sampling bias, increased by 2.6%, both data points reflecting strengthened wage fundamentals. The release of wage data comes as the Bank of Japan prepares for its monetary policy meeting on June 15–16. Markets widely expect the policy board to raise the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. Steady wage growth signals resilient domestic demand, further supporting the normalization of monetary policy. Sources revealed this week that Japanese regulators will consider a rate hike at this meeting and discuss the scope for further increases in subsequent phases after 2026.