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According to Odaily, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on the X platform that option expiry data on July 3 shows 31,000 BTC options expired with a Put Call Ratio of 0.7, a max pain point at $61,000, and a notional value of $1.9 billion; 135,000 ETH options expired with a Put Call Ratio of 1.29, a max pain point at $1,650, and a notional value of $230 million. Bitcoin regained the key $60,000 level again this week, but the downward trend remains in the long term. Strategy and ETF selling has shifted market consensus, with the largest buyer turning into a seller. Main option data shows that over 8% of options expire this week, with BTC GEX concentrated around $60,000 and ETH GEX at $1,700. This week, ETH’s Put Call Ratio reached 1.29, indicating a higher proportion of put options and a rise in market hedging demand. The latest hotspots are focused on US stocks, with tokenization of US stocks being the main topic in the crypto market; it will still take time before AI and semiconductors regain traction in crypto.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that Bitcoin's net UTXO supply ratio entered the buying zone for the first time since November 2022, and triggered a buy signal from late June to early July. To confirm a bottom, it is necessary to observe whether the ratio remains stable in positive territory while the price rises in tandem. The loss supply ratio indicator shows that the fast moving average broke above 50% at the end of June, while the slow moving average is around 40%. It will take about 7 to 8 weeks for the slow moving average to reach the 50% threshold.

This seasoned fixed income fund manager noted that, historically, geopolitical conflicts often trigger a shift towards high-quality assets, boosting U.S. Treasuries and thereby lowering yields. She wrote: "However, after the outbreak of conflict involving Iran, concerns over inflation dominated the market, pushing yields higher—especially at the short end of the yield curve." She explained that, as a result, market expectations underwent a dramatic shift: the market originally reflected expectations for more than two rate cuts, but now is discussing the possibility of one or even two rate hikes.