News

⑴ Indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran in Qatar have made positive progress. All parties have confirmed the contents of the memorandum of understanding and finalized a 60-day roadmap. The agreement aims to open the Strait of Hormuz and lift related oil sanctions. Influenced by this news, the overall sentiment in the energy and chemical market is under pressure, with crude oil and fuel oil prices having fallen back to pre-conflict levels. In the short term, prices are expected to remain low and volatile; it is advisable not to be overly bearish.⑵ The asphalt market is experiencing a weak supply and demand situation. Today, the price of Shandong 70# heavy traffic asphalt is 4,340 yuan/ton, a change of -10 compared to the previous period. The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic enterprises is 15.9%, up by 0.1%. As of July 2, total inventory at sample factories is 771 thousand tons, which is a decrease of 2.0% compared to June 29 and a decrease of 3.1% year-over-year. Although low inventory supports the basis, eased conflict pressure is expected to keep asphalt prices low and volatile in the short run.⑶ The glass industry demand remains weak; current daily production is sustained at 14.6 thousand tons. This week, float glass inventory is at 76.059 million weight boxes, down 0.5% week-on-week and up 10.09% year-on-year. Technological upgrades may increase costs and keep supply low, but mid-term supply and demand pressures persist. A short-term oscillatory rebound is expected.⑷ The soda ash market remains sluggish and stable; output is 74.09 thousand tons with a capacity utilization rate of 78.61%. As of Thursday, manufacturers’ total inventory is 1.73 million tons, up 5,600 tons from Monday, an increase of 0.32%. The mid-term pattern of high supply and weak demand is hard to change, and short-term oscillatory rebound is expected.⑸ The caustic soda market is under shipment pressure, making price stabilization difficult. During the week, the capacity utilization rate for sample enterprises producing over 100 thousand tons is 79.2%, down by 1.5%; plant inventory is 496,900 tons, up 0.38% week-on-week and up 29.35% year-over-year. Due to aluminum-free demand resisting high prices, the overall market is expected to remain weak in the short term.⑹ In the methanol market, the spot price in Taicang is 2,505, down 7 compared to the previous period; prices in North Inner Mongolia are 2,155, up 10. Sample producers’ inventory totals 381,100 tons, an increase of 13,400 tons from the previous period; port sample inventory is 493,200 tons, down 119,800 tons week-on-week. As the Strait gradually reopens and the balance sheet potentially accumulates inventory, methanol prices may gradually shift lower.

BlockBeats News, July 3rd. The latest weekly report from Bank of America showed that as of the week ending July 1st, U.S. stock funds saw a weekly outflow of $17.2 billion, marking the largest weekly net redemption since March 2026 and the second consecutive week of net outflows. At the same time, the BofA Bull/Bear Indicator rose from 9.1 to 9.5, remaining in the "extremely bullish" range. Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist at BofA, stated that the "sell signal" triggered on May 20th by this indicator has not yet been lifted. BofA's data indicates that since 2002, this indicator has triggered a "sell signal" 17 times, with the global stock market averaging a 2% to 3% decline over the following 2 to 3 months, with an accuracy rate of about 60%, and a historical maximum drawdown of 15% to 20%. On the fund flow side, investment-grade bonds attracted $17.2 billion in inflows for the week, marking the 13th consecutive week of net inflows; high-yield bonds saw an inflow of $3.4 billion, the largest weekly inflow since May 2025. Tech funds received $14.3 billion in inflows for the week, with the year-to-date cumulative inflow expected to reach a historical record of $152 billion. In the meantime, Japanese stock funds attracted $1.9 billion for the week, the largest weekly inflow in nearly 7 weeks. Amid U.S. stock outflows, the semiconductor sector has come under significant pressure, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling 11% over the past two trading days. JPMorgan strategists pointed out that the extreme outperformance of U.S. semiconductor stocks compared to AI mega-cap cloud computing companies has created an unsustainable valuation gap, and they expect this gap to eventually narrow. Commodities and gold remain under pressure, with gold seeing an outflow of $3 billion for the week, marking the 7th consecutive week of outflows; cryptocurrency outflows reached $2 billion, the largest weekly outflow since November 2025.

According to Odaily, the decentralized privacy protocol Hinkal Protocol has announced that it has detected abnormal activity involving USDC on the Ethereum network within its system. Currently, this issue only affects the Ethereum blockchain, while other chains remain unaffected. As a precautionary measure, the affected smart contracts have been paused, and a comprehensive investigation and analysis of related on-chain transactions and activities is underway. The investigation is still ongoing, and further updates will be provided once the information has been verified. Earlier reports stated that suspicious USDC transactions on Hinkal led to a loss of 800 thousand US dollars.