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Golden Ten Data July 1 – Marcel Thieliant, Head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, stated that the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey released earlier has reinforced the case for a rapid interest rate hike. He pointed out that the headline index measuring sentiment among large manufacturers surged to +22, the highest level since the global financial crisis. “The sentiment among large non-manufacturing firms in the first quarter was already at its highest level since the early 1990s, but still edged up further from +36 to +37,” he added. In addition, companies’ inflation expectations for the next five years climbed from 2.5% to 2.6%. This figure “supports the view of those members within the Bank of Japan who warn of upside risks to inflation.”

Market sentiment remains sluggish, with BTC and ETH continuing their corrections, but SOL is showing clear relative resilience. Over the past 7 days, BTC has dropped by 7.32%, ETH has decreased by 6.10%, while SOL is still up 4.75%, making it one of the best-performing major assets. SOL’s strength mainly comes from three factors: First, as BTC and ETH remain under pressure, some capital has started rotating into higher-elasticity assets; second, SOL's funding rate remains neutral, indicating the current rise is not driven by high leverage and the capital structure is relatively healthy; third, the support around $70 has not been lost, and bulls are showing strong willingness to hold this level. Pay attention to three key levels: BTC: $58,000—If it regains the $60,000 level, market sentiment may recover; if it falls below $58,000, beware of further downside. SOL: $70—$70 remains the short-term dividing line between strength and weakness; if held, SOL is likely to maintain its relative strength. ETH: $1,550–$1,600—Whether it can regain $1,600 will impact the overall recovery strength of major assets. The current market is still dominated by capital flows. Before ETF fund flows improve, although SOL is showing relative strength, whether it can decouple and trend independently still depends on whether BTC stabilizes.

Golden Ten Data reported on July 1 that ANZ economist Sharon Zollner stated that, given the uncertain period faced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, it may focus primarily on risk management in its policy meeting next week and raise the official interest rate by 25 basis points. She pointed out that the official interest rate is still 75 basis points lower than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's central estimate of the neutral rate. She added that, as the economic environment is favorable, the New Zealand dollar is weaker than expected, and inflation is likely to remain above the target range for some time, it is a wise move for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to implement a rate hike.