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BlockBeats news, on June 22, the Japanese yen against the US dollar briefly touched around 161.7 on Monday, just a step away from its lowest point since 1986 at 161.96. In response to continued depreciation, Japanese authorities have uncharacteristically remained silent, with the market generally believing this is preparation for a "surprise attack" on short sellers. Finance Minister Katsuyuki Katayama downplayed the situation on Monday by merely saying "will respond to exchange rate fluctuations in a timely manner," with noticeably softer wording. Jun Mitsumura, considered the core signal for intervention, has been publicly silent since early May—he had issued a "final warning" before the intervention at the end of April. According to informed sources, since previous overly transparent warnings allowed speculators to exit early, the authorities are now intentionally shifting to a surprise mode to maximize the effect of intervention. The chief FX strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities pointed out that under the cover of the lack of urgency in official rhetoric, sudden intervention will have a stronger impact. The latest CFTC data shows net short positions on the yen have surged to 145,818 contracts, the highest since July 2024, with speculative forces highly concentrated. On inflation pressure, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Himino warned the parliament on Monday that there is a risk of price increases deviating significantly from the 2% target, and if continued yen depreciation pushes up import costs, the risk of the central bank "acting too late" should not be ignored. Analysts pointed out that the current market positions are overstretched and numb due to official silence, so once intervention begins its effectiveness will be multiplied geometrically.

(1) The U.S. general collateral repo rate opened on Monday at 3.65%, below the 10-day average starting level of 3.67%. Government-supported corporate funds have been injected into the system, which helps drive the overnight rate downward and fully offsets the $1.3 billion cash withdrawal pressure caused by the settlement of the 20-year Treasury auction.(2) Clearance activities dominate the fixed income market. Coupled with the recent reduction in Treasury bill issuance and the Federal Reserve's operations of purchasing Treasury bills to inject funds into the system, cash is actively seeking refuge in the collateral market. This may push the general collateral repo rate toward the midpoint of the 3.50% to 3.75% interest rate corridor.(3) For the remainder of today, the general collateral repo rate is expected to fluctuate in the 3.60% to 3.65% range, with the overnight rate likely to be near the lower end of the corridor. The Federal Reserve’s overnight reverse repo facility rate stands at 3.50%. The number of participants on Wednesday and Thursday was 16 and 4, respectively, with total demand of $683 million and $25 million.(4) The spreads of Treasury bonds of various maturities relative to the general collateral repo rate remain stable. The spreads for 2-year and 5-year bonds are steady; the 20-year spread has fallen back to 8 basis points, after reaching 40 basis points a week earlier. Secured overnight financing rate futures opened down by 1.5 to 5.5 basis points, led by the red contracts. The overnight index swap pricing for the 0x3 term implies a 37% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike within the next 90 days.