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⑴ Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell for the third consecutive trading day, at one point dropping 4%, heading toward its lowest closing level since November 2020. ⑵ Ahmad Mikail Zaini, Chief Economist at Sucor Sekuritas, stated that government policy uncertainty, the risk of a credit rating downgrade, and a weak rupiah are all putting pressure on the stock market. Since the government's announcement of an export control plan, negative sentiment has continued to intensify. ⑶ The Jakarta Composite Index has fallen 8% so far this week, and is expected to decline for the fourth straight week. Since the start of the year, the index has dropped by about 35% in total.

BlockBeats News, June 5th, the latest research from the Boston Fed pointed out that with the improvement in energy efficiency and the growth in domestic crude oil production, the U.S. economy's sensitivity to oil price increases has significantly decreased. Unlike the oil crisis of the 1970s, the current oil price increase no longer massively impacts the job market. The additional jobs created by the oil and gas industry's expansion can partially offset the pressure on other industries. Therefore, the possibility of high oil prices leading to a "stagflation" situation of high inflation and high unemployment has noticeably decreased. However, the report also warned that the cushioning effect of oil price shocks on employment has weakened, implying that the inflationary pressure from rising energy prices may be more enduring. The Fed does not need to overly worry about energy price hikes leading to an economic downturn, but should focus more on containing inflation. The current market consensus is that the Fed's June meeting will keep rates unchanged, but some officials have begun discussing the possibility of raising rates later this year. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley believes that the current oil price surge is more of a short-term supply disruption and is not sufficient to be a key factor driving rate hikes. The institution expects the U.S. interest rate to remain unchanged for the whole year and is likely to start a rate-cutting cycle in 2027. However, as geopolitical conflicts push up energy prices, the market's view on the Fed's policy path has significantly shifted. Fed officials have recently been sending frequent hawkish signals, emphasizing that if inflation remains persistently above the target level, further policy tightening is not ruled out.

Odaily reported that the Boston Federal Reserve released its latest research on Thursday, stating that a fundamental transformation in the US energy structure has completely changed how oil price shocks affect the domestic economy, and has also reshaped the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy logic. Currently, the mainstream tendency of the Federal Reserve is to remain on hold in the short term, waiting to observe the ongoing impact of the conflict. However, officials are generally concerned that continued conflict may cement high inflation, and some voices have raised the possibility of a rate hike within the year. The Boston Federal Reserve’s research provides support for this, suggesting that even if interest rates are increased during this cycle, the optimization of the economic structure means it will not cause the severe employment downturn seen in the past. However, Morgan Stanley holds a completely different view, believing that this round of oil price increases is a short-term supply disruption and will not become the core reason for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Morgan Stanley forecasts that inflation will gradually bounce back in the second half of the year, with volatility in the job market, and that the Federal Reserve will most likely keep interest rates unchanged throughout the year, with the potential to begin cutting rates in 2027. (Golden Ten Data)