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According to Golden Ten Data on July 1, S&P Global Economic Deputy Director Annabel Fiddes stated: The latest PMI survey shows that Japan's manufacturing sector experienced its strongest quarterly performance in over 12 years in June. Driven by a significant improvement in customer demand, factories continued to expand production levels at a steady pace. In addition, overall new business growth reached its fastest rate in nearly four and a half years, with strong demand for artificial intelligence-related technology and semiconductors. However, growth is still at least partly driven by corporate stockpiling amid the ongoing Middle East conflict. Notably, supplier performance deteriorated sharply again in June, affected by shipping delays and shortages among suppliers. As a result, inflationary pressures remain among the most severe since the survey began in 2001, with both input costs and sales prices rising rapidly again in June. Therefore, there is significant uncertainty as to whether this strong performance can continue into the second half of the year, as short-term stockpiling activity may quickly fade, especially as costs continue to rise and customer spending comes under greater pressure.

BlockBeats News, July 1st, the latest research report from CICC pointed out that the current gold price may have already priced in the rate hike expectations. A Fed rate hike is still not the base case scenario, and the gold market may have overly incorporated the rate hike expectations, leaving room for retracement later this year. CICC's macro team believes that the increasing pressure from employment and consumption and the expanding financing demand from the U.S. AI economy may make it difficult for the Fed to substantially turn hawkish, and the monetary policy could be more of a "naming hawk, acting dove" approach. Based on the implied interest rate expectations from the gold price, the current price of around $4000 per ounce has already fully priced in 3-4 rate hikes, which is higher than the rate futures market's expectations. Looking ahead, after further reflection of the oil price drop in the U.S. short-term inflation data, the gold market's pricing of rate hike expectations may be corrected, providing an opportunity for short-term funds to reposition in the futures market. (FX678)

Golden Ten Data reported on July 1st that the latest research report from CICC points out that gold may have already been over-priced on rate hike expectations. A Federal Reserve rate hike is still not the base case, and the gold market may have excessively priced in rate hike expectations, leaving potential room for pullbacks within the year. The CICC macro team believes that employment and consumption pressures, as well as the growing financing demand from the US AI economy, may make it difficult for the Federal Reserve to turn hawkish in substance, and monetary policy may be "hawkish in name, dovish in practice." According to the interest rate expectation model implied by gold prices, rate hike expectations have been priced in even more than those in the interest rate futures market. Looking ahead, after the decline in oil prices is further reflected in US short-term inflation data, gold market pricing of rate hike expectations may be corrected, and there could be opportunities for short-term capital replenishment in the futures market at that time.