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ChainCatcher reports that Bitcoin has closed above $63,000 on the weekly chart for three consecutive weeks after hitting a 2026 new low of around $59,000, indicating that the technical structure remains relatively solid. This pattern is similar to the bottom formation seen before trend reversals in previous bear markets. Data shows that Bitcoin futures open interest has decreased by 19.5% from its June peak, funding rates have dropped from 0.1% at the beginning of June to 0.02%, and spot Bitcoin ETF outflows have slowed significantly over the past two weeks to approximately $540 million, compared to $5.5 billion in outflows the previous month. These figures suggest the market is absorbing excess selling pressure while maintaining price action near key support levels. On the weekly chart, Bitcoin's current price action resembles the period from late 2022 to early 2023. At that time, the weekly RSI rebounded from oversold, forming higher lows while price made lower lows, resulting in a bullish divergence and marking a key turning point before the 2023 upward trend. The market is now focused on the $63,000 region, where Bitcoin is showing a positive RSI divergence and has closed above $63,000 multiple times on the weekly chart, keeping the price above the recent low of $59,000. In terms of on-chain data, analyst Axel Adler Jr. notes that the realized supply held by long-term holders has recently risen to 12.42 million BTC, indicating a maturing supply gradually shifting to stronger hands. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin selling pressure indicator has been inactive for 1,256 days in a row, the longest period on record, suggesting Bitcoin may be stabilizing near a potential cycle low.

Progress in US-Iran negotiations reduces safe-haven demand, gold maintains slight fluctuations

According to ChainCatcher, Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale, stated that if the Federal Reserve pauses interest rate hikes, Bitcoin may experience an increase. Since the start of the Iran war at the end of February, the US stock market has risen by 9%, Bitcoin has fallen by 1%, and gold has dropped by 20%. Although large-scale AI-related expenditures have supported the stock market, Bitcoin and gold have underperformed, partly because the market expects the Federal Reserve may raise rates to combat inflation. Grayscale does not agree with this expectation; their base scenario is that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate hikes. If this judgment is correct, Bitcoin price may catch up with stock market performance. Zach Pandl noted that since the Iran war began, 1-year Federal Reserve interest rate expectations have risen by about 60 basis points, and about half of Federal Reserve officials believe that a rate hike in 2026 may be appropriate. The European Central Bank has already raised rates. As non-interest-bearing monetary assets, gold and Bitcoin compete with fiat currencies, and an increase in the real interest rate of fiat currencies raises the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin and gold, thereby suppressing demand. Bitcoin has a dual purpose in investment portfolios: on the one hand, it is a scarce digital commodity that can serve as a long-term store of value; on the other hand, it is a public chain asset that provides exposure to the long-term growth of the crypto industry. Therefore, Bitcoin’s function in an investment portfolio is similar but not identical to gold and growth stocks. Zach Pandl stated that if the probability of a rate hike falls, which is in line with Grayscale’s base scenario, Bitcoin may catch up with stock market performance.