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Rainer Guntermann from Commerzbank stated in a report that concerns about oil, inflation, and the European Central Bank’s forum in Sintra, Portugal, may limit the downside for German government bond yields. “Although oil prices nearing pre-war levels have reduced tail risks for economic growth, inflation, and interest rate volatility, the pace of the inflation decline may not be fast enough to eliminate the European Central Bank’s hawkish stance,” said the rates strategist. Monday’s government bond supply will come from Belgium, which will auction between 260 million and 300 million euros worth of bonds maturing in 2034, 2041, and 2056 (OLO). According to Tradeweb data, the 10-year German government bond yield edged up by 0.9 basis points to 2.859%.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Walsh, has appointed two economists as advisors. A Reuters survey predicts the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged until the end of 2027. The US Consumer Confidence Index for June was higher than forecast. An Invesco survey shows 61% of central banks believe US debt levels are affecting the status of the dollar. Citi has raised its target for the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds. Bank of America expects the European Central Bank to raise interest rates in September 2026. Germany is considering a 20 billion euro tax cut plan. The Bank of England's Chief Economist, Pill, states that Brexit has made the UK more prone to inflation. Japan's retail sales have risen for three consecutive months, and the government targets annual real economic growth of over 1%. The Financial Times reports that Japan's number of IPOs in the first half of the year has dropped to a 15-year low. The European Central Bank's Sintra Forum is underway. The People's Bank of China conducted a 157.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo and a 300 billion yuan overnight reverse repo operation. South Korea has announced chip and artificial intelligence projects; foreign investors have net sold 7.7 trillion won of KOSPI stocks. A Wall Street Journal survey shows South Korea's inflation rate may exceed 3% for two consecutive months. The Governor of the Bank of Thailand said there will be no interest rate hike and banks will be permitted to issue Thai baht stablecoins. The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority plans to relax bank risk weights. Indonesia's Senior Deputy Governor states liquidity will be maintained.

Jinse Finance reports that, according to median estimates from a survey of five traders and refining firms on June 29, Saudi Aramco may lower the official selling price for Arab Light crude oil to Asia in August by $8 per barrel compared to the previous month. Market forecasts range from a reduction of $7 to $8 per barrel. If the August price cut is implemented, it will mark the third consecutive month of price reductions, potentially bringing oil prices back to the level at the start of the Iran conflict. The premium for April Arab Light crude oil to Asia, set in early March, was only $2.50 per barrel.