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09:14
Analysis: The MVRV curve suggests a weak BTC rebound is near, with a low probability of testing the $50,000 level
BlockBeats news, on June 28, crypto analyst Murphy used the “post-halving MVRV overlap curve” framework for analysis, stating that current cycle volatility is severely compressed—highs are not high enough, and lows are not low enough. The current BTC price channel corresponds to an MVRV of approximately 1.12 to 1.30, which converts to a BTC price range of about $59,000 to $70,000. Murphy believes that in the short term, BTC is already near the lower boundary of the channel, around $59,000, and before July 23 is likely to show a weak rebound or fluctuate at current prices, with a low probability of falling to $50,000; if there is a rebound, the height is expected not to exceed the range corresponding to MVRV 1.30, which is $69,000 to $70,000. From a medium-term perspective, Murphy believes that the true bottoming withdrawal is most likely to occur after July 23 or August 23, in line with the traditional four-year cycle timing, and that September to October may be an even more important window for price changes. On the price front, Murphy clearly indicated that Bitcoin under $60,000 is cheap. Overall, the short-term tone is not pessimistic but there is also no rush to aggressively buy the dip, and the current situation is more like a range-bound fluctuation with weak rebound. The period that truly warrants caution is from the end of July to after August.
09:06
Nasdaq ETF Huitianfu: Reminder of the premium risk in secondary market trading prices
Golden Ten Data reported on June 28 that the Nasdaq ETF managed by E Fund announced that recently, the secondary market trading price of this fund has been significantly higher than the fund's indicative net asset value, resulting in a substantial premium. On June 26, 2026, the closing price was 2.328 yuan, while the IOPV at closing was 2.1888 yuan. If the premium does not effectively decrease on June 29, the fund has the right to apply for measures such as trading suspension. Investors can trade or subscribe/redeem on the secondary market, with trading prices affected by various factors. Currently, the fund is operating normally, with no undisclosed information that should be disclosed.
09:04
Citrini analyst: Semiconductor high-purity CO2 procurement issues have emerged as a warning.
Odaily reports that Citrini analyst jukan posted on the X platform, stating that there is a warning signal for sourcing high-purity carbon dioxide (CO2), which is used in advanced semiconductor manufacturing processes. The reason is a significant decrease in CO2 production due to reduced operating rates at oil refining and petrochemical plants. Semiconductor manufacturers and suppliers typically each hold around two weeks of inventory, totaling about a month's supply, but the industry now believes inventories have dropped below one month. Samsung Electronics uses about 1,800 to 2,000 tons of high-purity CO2 per month, and SK Hynix uses about 600 to 700 tons per month. Currently, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have not experienced production interruptions, but their inventory reserves are continuously shrinking. Both companies are ramping up procurement, and even with price increases, it is difficult to secure additional supply. The price of liquefied CO2 has risen by about 20% since the beginning of the year, and the industry expects supply shortages to likely persist until the end of the year. Major domestic high-purity CO2 suppliers include Taekyung Chemical, Sundo Chemical, Dongkwang Chemical, and SK Air Plus, with Taekyung Chemical considered the leading company.
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