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(1) Crude Oil: The US and Iran are still negotiating in Switzerland, with reports indicating progress has been made on the navigation issue in the Strait of Hormuz. Israel will also end nationwide public restrictions, suggesting a low probability of further escalation. Crude oil futures abroad are fluctuating at low levels, and the domestic energy and chemical sector is following suit, remaining in a weak oscillation.(2) Fuel Oil: The US and Iran have confirmed the contents of the memorandum of understanding, and the first round of high-level talks between the two countries has concluded, with all parties setting a 60-day roadmap. The agreement will open the Strait of Hormuz and lift sanctions on Iranian oil. Despite recent geopolitical volatility, the overall situation is easing, and fuel oil is expected to operate weakly.(3) Asphalt: Today, the price of Shanghai 70# heavy traffic asphalt is 4,400 yuan/ton, down by 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous period, with costs continuing to decline and asphalt prices running weak. In June, the total scheduled output of domestic asphalt at local refineries was 625,000 tons, decreasing by 249,000 tons month-on-month (-28.5%). This week, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy traffic asphalt enterprises was 15.8%, up by 1.8% compared to the previous period. As of June 22, inventory at 54 domestic asphalt sample factories reached 783,000 tons, up 0.6% from June 18; social inventory was 1.174 million tons, down 2.6% from June 18 and down 36.1% year-on-year. Overall, asphalt is in a weak supply and demand pattern, and with midfield easing in the US-Iran situation, asphalt may continue to adjust downward.(4) Glass: Today, some enterprises in Shahe had good shipments, with prices slightly rising by 10 yuan/ton, while other prices remained temporarily stable with mixed shipping results. Recently, the "Three-Year Action Plan for Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Transformation in Key Industries" has been introduced, explicitly involving glass. Technological upgrades will raise industry cost levels and keep supply low, but demand expectations remain weak, and midterm supply and demand pressures persist. Recently, main short positions have significantly decreased, and short-term oscillation with a bullish bias is expected.(5) Soda Ash: Today, the domestic soda ash market tends to be stable, with firm prices and average transactions; some companies have increased their load, slightly raising overall production. Downstream demand is lukewarm, with moderate low-priced stockpiling. Soda ash capacity utilization is 78.81%. On Monday, total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7264 million tons, up 26,200 tons from last week (+1.54%). Midterm high supply and weak demand are hard to change; short-term oscillation at low levels is expected. Playing the glass-soda ash price spread is recommended.(6) Methanol: Today's spot price in Taicang is 2,690 yuan, down by 105; in North Inner Mongolia, 2,390 yuan, down by 55. The domestic methanol market continues its decline across the board, with futures breaking support and plunging, and port prices sharply lower. Last week, methanol port inventory was 560,300 tons, down 72,100 tons from the previous period (-11.40%); producers' inventory increased 31,000 tons (+9.20%). With the US-Iran deal finalized, crude oil and related commodities are plummeting in tandem; in some regions, spot market panic is evident. If the Strait gradually reopens and the balance sheet accumulates inventory, the price center may gradually shift downward.

On June 24, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Becerra stated that he believes no one should publish the dot plot. Becerra added, "The only reason I ever liked the dot plot was when I was running my own investment business; we had a trading model specifically for reverse trading the dot plot because the dot plot is always wrong." Becerra expressed appreciation for Federal Reserve Chair Waller's decision to eliminate forward guidance. He also mentioned that he has breakfast with Waller every week, consistent with the practice during Powell's tenure as Fed Chair.

On June 24, Goldman Sachs stated in its latest research report that the AI investment boom has not yet peaked, but the market pricing for its future returns is clearly ahead of macroeconomic realizations. The firm pointed out that the share of U.S. technology investment in GDP has surpassed the peak during the internet bubble of the 1990s, with capital expenditure expectations for major cloud providers being revised up nearly 80% in the past six months for 2026. This wave of investment continues to drive revenue and profit growth in the semiconductor, cloud computing, server, and data center supply chains, leading to increasingly high valuations for AI-related assets. However, unlike the late 1990s, the current risks no longer primarily stem from a pure valuation expansion detached from fundamentals, but increasingly from the market's expectations for the long-term sustainability of high profit margins and capital returns. Goldman Sachs believes that the core contradiction of the AI market is intensifying: fundamentals remain strong, but the market has already priced in too much future earnings.