News

BlockBeats News, June 17 — The core narrative of global markets is gradually shifting from “the end of the Middle East war” to “asset repricing in the post-war era.” Details of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding continue to be revealed, including lifting the ban on oil exports, unfreezing assets, and the planning of private investment funds reaching as much as $300 billion. The market has already started trading the possibility of Iran’s return to the global energy and capital markets. However, the actual pace of restoring operations in the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain. European allies are conservative regarding demining and escorting, and shipping companies generally believe a full return to normal passage may still take several weeks or even longer, indicating that although geopolitical risks have declined, they have not completely disappeared. The energy market has already started reflecting these changes. As the US may allow Iran to immediately resume oil exports, about 68 million barrels of Iranian crude oil stranded at sea are waiting to re-enter the market. Combined with the possibility of Russian oil sanctions expiring, the structure of global energy supply is being reshaped. In the short term, Iran’s increased production helps lower oil prices and shipping costs, but if Russian exports become restricted again, the energy market may see new supply and demand tensions in the future. This is also why gold demand has not noticeably cooled as peace prospects rise. A World Gold Council survey shows that more and more central banks are continuing to increase their gold reserves, essentially reflecting that central banks’ long-term hedging against geopolitical and global debt risks has not changed. Meanwhile, a clear divergence has emerged in global central bank policies. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 1%, the highest in 31 years, but also announced it would stop further tapering of bond purchases next year; the Reserve Bank of Australia, after consecutive rate hikes, paused for the first time. This suggests central banks have entered a new phase of “keeping rates high for longer, but avoiding rapid shrinkage of liquidity.” The real market focus is on Kevin Warsh, the new Federal Reserve Chair, and his first FOMC meeting tonight. Recently, whether in Citadel Securities, academic surveys, or market pricing, expectations have shifted from rate cuts to a renewed risk of rate hikes. In other words, for the past two years, markets have traded on the rate cut timetable; now, they are starting to price in the possibility of rising funding costs again. It is noteworthy that even as expectations for high rates increase, risk assets continue to attract capital. SpaceX not only completed the $60 billion acquisition of Anysphere, but for a time even surpassed Microsoft and Amazon to become the fourth-largest enterprise by market value in the world. AI, space technology, and large-cap tech capital expenditures continue to accelerate. However, this also raises concerns about imbalances between valuations and liquidity. As credit markets maintain ultra-low spreads and tech companies are able to finance at extremely low costs, the restraining force of high rates on risk assets has not yet truly appeared. For the crypto market, the biggest variable is no longer the Middle East, but whether Warsh will reduce forward policy guidance and redefine future financial conditions. If the Federal Reserve maintains high rates but allows credit to continue expanding, market liquidity may still support risk asset performance; but if supply is managed by shrinking both the balance sheet and credit, tech stocks, AI concepts, and the crypto market may all face repricing pressure. Thus, although on the surface markets are trading on a “peace dividend,” in reality, they are waiting for the Fed to decide the direction of the next round of global liquidity, and performance will continue to reflect true market judgments about funding costs and liquidity outlook.

BlockBeats News, on June 17, according to on-chain data analyst Murphy, the current market focus should not be solely on "Bitcoin spot trading volume" itself, but on "relative spot trading volume" (i.e., spot trading volume divided by the past 30-day average). This indicator measures the relative level of market activity, but does not have the ability to indicate a single direction and needs to be interpreted together with price-volume structure analysis. Structurally, Bitcoin retested the February low in June, but the relative trading volume during this round of testing is significantly lower than in February, indicating that in a similar price range, the selling pressure during the second dip has clearly weakened. This combination of "prices retesting lows but trading volume decreases" is often regarded by the market as a sign of temporary exhaustion in selling pressure. On the derivatives side, since April, the perpetual contract funding rate has undergone significant changes: earlier periods of negative premium triggered short squeezes and drove price rebounds, but by mid-May, the negative premium gradually disappeared and shifted to a clearly positive premium, after which the market rebound ended and entered a correction phase. Currently, the funding rate structure has gradually returned to a normal range, which means that the previous impact caused by crowded long positions and leverage-driven downward momentum is weakening and the long/short structure is starting to balance out. Overall, spot demand remains weak, but selling pressure is decreasing at the margin. Coupled with the diminishing influence of leverage on the derivatives side, the market is moving closer to the rhythm seen in February–March, possibly entering a new "sideways bottom formation" phase, but there is not yet a clear sign of trend reversal.

Golden Ten Data reported on June 17 that on June 16, Hi Sun Technology (China) Limited officially signed a tripartite strategic cooperation agreement with Beijing Zhongke Guoguang Quantum Technology Co., Ltd., the first domestic photonic quantum chip provider, and Guangdong Weide Information Technology Co., Ltd., a quantum cloud platform service provider. Together, they aim to jointly build an integrated cooperation framework of "quantum chip + quantum cloud platform + financial security application" and work together to develop large-scale industrial applications of quantum encryption technology in the financial industry.