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OPEC+'s process of restoring millions of barrels of previously suspended supply is nearing completion, at least on paper, raising questions about the outlook for the final batch of production originally scheduled to return to market in 2027. Over the past year, OPEC and its allies have restored more than 80% of the 2023 production cuts. Delegates said the alliance plans to further increase quotas in three steps by September to complete this restoration process, and they expect another modest quota increase of 188,000 barrels per day to be approved at Sunday's video conference. War has forced Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait to curtail output, making OPEC+ oil highly sought after by the market. However, severe disruptions to tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz mean the group cannot immediately meet this demand. As a result, despite raising the production quotas on paper, actual output levels have fallen sharply.The final batch of supply restrictions is scheduled to be lifted next year. Several delegates said that given the recent faster-than-planned recovery of supply and the urgent market need for oil, the last set of supply limits could also be lifted ahead of schedule. As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, these decisions are largely symbolic. But once the waterway reopens and global consumers race to replenish oil inventories depleted during the conflict, their importance may rise. This crisis has already driven up gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices.Even so, if the last batch of supply returns to the market more quickly, the actual amount entering the market will almost certainly fall far short of the announced figures. Much of the OPEC+ oil promised to be restored over the past year has never actually materialized, as many member countries have been unable to boost output to targets—capacity eroded by underinvestment, aging fields, supply disruptions, and even sanctions. Restoring oil field output to pre-war levels may take more time. Last month, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company CEO Sultan Al Jaber said that recovering to 80% of pre-conflict flows would take at least four months.

Market observers report that uncertainty regarding US tariffs continues to distort and tighten the global copper market. Washington is expected to decide whether to extend import tariffs to refined copper, a move that could have a significant impact on global supply. Last year, anticipation of tariffs drove up copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME), as US buyers accelerated purchases and built up inventories ahead of potential trade restrictions, thereby reducing available supply in other regions. Analysts at Saxo Bank stated: “The imminent US Department of Commerce report due by the end of June is a potential major catalyst.” They also noted: “Recommendations supporting future tariffs may encourage further inventory accumulation ahead of their implementation, while a decision not to proceed with tariffs could prompt the current premium to unwind and exert some temporary pressure on prices.”

DOJ task force freezes $3.8 million in illegal cryptocurrency, operation assisted by an exchange, SpaceX, and Meta. (Decrypt)