Bitcoin's Dominance Over 15 Years – Why Is It Still Worth Investing?
In the ever-evolving financial landscape, few innovations have been as revolutionary and contentious as Bitcoin. Born from a visionary 2008 whitepaper penned by the enigmatic Satoshi Nakamoto, this decentralized digital currency introduced a new paradigm, challenging traditional financial systems and establishing itself as a major player in the global economy.
Over the past 15 years, Bitcoin has weathered numerous storms, from geopolitical tensions and regulatory challenges to high-profile hacks and market fluctuations. Its resilience, adaptability, and growing acceptance by both individual and institutional investors underscore its significance. As Bitcoin continues to chart its unique course, this report delves into its storied past, its current standing, and its potential future trajectory. We aim to answer the pressing question: Given Bitcoin's dominant track record, why might it still be a worthwhile investment moving forward?
About Bitcoin whitepaper
The Bitcoin whitepaper, released by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2008, aims to address the issues of traditional currency systems and proposes a decentralized digital currency system. The whitepaper provides a detailed description of key concepts such as Bitcoin transactions, proof-of-work, network structure, privacy protection, and incentive mechanisms. It serves to emphasize the characteristics of decentralization and openness by providing guidance for the development of subsequent cryptocurrencies. The main idea was to create a digital currency system that does not rely on central authorities, ensuring transaction security through a decentralized proof-of-work mechanism. It also offers pseudonymity and encourages miners to participate in the network to ensure long-term reliability.
Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, some key points that investors need to know:
Meaning of colors: Typically, red and orange areas indicate an overheated market, possibly in a price bubble, while blue and purple areas indicate a potentially undervalued market with buying opportunities.
Not an absolute buying and selling indicator: Although the Rainbow Chart can provide an intuitive impression of market sentiment, it should not be used as the sole basis for making buying and selling decisions. Investment decisions should be based on multiple factors and detailed research.
Long-term perspective: This chart is most suitable for long-term investors as it focuses on macro market trends rather than short-term price fluctuations.
Updates: As the market evolves, the parameters and ranges of the Rainbow Chart may need occasional updates to maintain relevance.
Bitcoin’s Path over the past 15 years
2013: On March 25, 2013, the Cyprus government, European Central Bank, and International Monetary Fund announced a bailout of 10 billion euros for Cyprus, and imposed a tax on all accounts in Cyprus with deposits exceeding 100,000 euros. As a well-known tax haven, Cyprus banks held a significant amount of offshore accounts for wealthy individuals worldwide. To avoid taxation, account holders in Cyprus bought a large amount of Bitcoin, driving the price from $80 to $260.
On April 10, 2013, following the news of the Cyprus bailout, the world's largest Bitcoin exchange, Mt.Gox, experienced a sharp decline in price due to the Chinese government declaring Bitcoin as non-currency and banning all financial institutions from participating in Bitcoin-related activities.
2014: On February 24, 2014, amidst accusations within the Bitcoin community, the Bitcoin exchange Mt.Gox announced its closure. Mt.Gox revealed that over 850,000 user and company-owned Bitcoins had been stolen over the past few years, resulting in a loss of $450 million.
On October 6, 2014, the Bitstamp exchange experienced the largest sell order in history, with a trader selling 3,000 Bitcoins at a price of $300 per coin. On the same day, Bitstamp was hacked, resulting in the theft of 18,866 Bitcoins worth $5.2 million. The hacker gained access to the hot wallet's private keys by compromising an administrator's account. Bitstamp suspended operations for 8 days to fix the system vulnerability. Although no users suffered financial losses in this hack, market confidence plummeted, causing a sharp decline in Bitcoin's price.
2016: On August 2, 2016, Bitfinex, the world's largest Bitcoin exchange, was hacked, resulting in the theft of 119,756 Bitcoins worth over $72 million. On the same day, Bitcoin's price plummeted by 20%.
2017: On March 3, 2017, Bitcoin's price surpassed $1,000 for the first time in 3 years, mainly due to extensive media coverage attracting new investors.
On June 15, 2017, Bitcoin experienced a 15% drop in a single day and a 30% drop within 3 days due to rumors of a comprehensive ban on cryptocurrency trading by the People's Bank of China.
On September 4, 2017, after the release of the "Announcement on Preventing the Risks of Token Issuance Financing" by the People's Bank of China and six other ministries, Bitcoin experienced a cliff-like decline.
On October 20, 2017, Bitcoin's price hovered around $6,000, reaching a new all-time high. Within 1 hour and 35 minutes, from 13:39 to 15:14, the price rapidly rose from $5,640 to $5,975.
On December 7, 2017, Bitcoin's trading price surpassed $15,000 and 100,000 Chinese yuan for the first time.
2018: On December 16, 2018, Bitcoin's price hit a bottom at $3,200, declining over 80% from its all-time high.
2019: On the evening of October 26, 2019, Bitcoin's price surged from $7,600 to $10,800, a 40% increase in a single day, marking the third-largest price swing in Bitcoin's history.
2020: On the evening of March 12, 2020, the cryptocurrency market experienced a $2 billion liquidation, with the largest liquidation amount reaching $58.3 million and an average of $51,000 per liquidation.
2021: On March 13, 2021, Bitcoin surpassed the $60,000 mark.
On April 10, 2021, Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $64,800.
On June 9, 2021, the President of El Salvador proposed making Bitcoin the country's legal tender, and on June 9, the proposal was passed by a majority vote in Congress. El Salvador became the first country in the world to adopt a virtual currency as legal tender.
On November 9, 2021, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $68,300.
2022: On March 1, 2022, the U.S. Treasury Department issued new regulations prohibiting Americans from providing any support to Russian oligarchs and entities, including through the use of digital currencies or crypto assets. On the same day, Bitcoin's price experienced a short-term surge from around $41,800 to nearly $44,000, with a 24-hour increase of over 14%.
On June 14, 2022, influenced by the LUNA collapse event, Bitcoin's price briefly dropped below $21,000, reaching a low of $20,846, the lowest point since December 16, 2020.
On October 4, 2022, Bitcoin fell below the $19,800 mark.
2023: On August 17, 2023, Bitcoin's price fell below $29,000 per coin for the first time since August 7, with a 0.58% decrease within 24 hours.
In September 2023, Bitcoin dropped below $25,000 per coin, experiencing a decline of over 3% in a single day.
Bitcoin and Beyond: Projections and Trends
1. The cryptocurrency market has experienced a widespread surge
In recent days, the cryptocurrency market has witnessed a significant surge across the board. Market confidence has been bolstered by the listing of BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust on DTCC (US Securities Centralized Depository and Clearing Corporation). This development is widely interpreted as a precursor to the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the market. Bloomberg ETF analysts have also indicated that BlackRock plans to inject seed ETF into their ETF in October, further signaling the imminent arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs for investors.
2. The ETF market holds immense potential
The participation of major institutions such as BlackRock, Invesco, and Fidelity in the cryptocurrency space has prompted investors to reevaluate their perceptions of cryptoassets, dispelling doubts and fears surrounding the industry. According to ETFGI statistics, as of June 2023, the global ETF market's total assets under management are nearing $10 trillion. With the successful approval of cryptocurrency ETFs, cryptoassets will seamlessly enter this $10 trillion market, injecting a significant boost to their value. Increased liquidity and the influx of professional traders will follow, driving the price of Bitcoin higher.
3. Future market trends to watch
What can we expect for the future of cryptoassets in the market? Externally, the prevailing view is that Bitcoin and Ethereum are primarily seen as technological assets, and their value tends to fluctuate in response to macroeconomic monetary policies. Internally, Bitcoin is set to undergo a halving event in May 2024, reducing its production from 6.25 to 3.125. The scarcity of Bitcoin is a key reason why mainstream investors currently favor Bitcoin over Ethereum. In terms of market rotation cycles, it is common for Bitcoin to lead the upward trend, followed by Ethereum, and then a rotation towards Altcoins.
4. Other cryptoassets worth considering
Apart from Bitcoin and Ethereum, there are other cryptoassets that deserve attention. Firstly, within the Bitcoin ecosystem, there is immense potential for continuous exploration, whether it's related to Bitcoin network payments, Layer2 solutions, privacy-focused projects, or upcoming innovative ideas. Secondly, there are DeFi-related currencies within the Ethereum ecosystem. Decentralized finance has always been a central narrative of the Ethereum network, enabling users worldwide to establish trustless decentralized networks and enhance financial efficiency across various domains.
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