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BlockBeats news, June 17 — Serenity responded on social media to bearish sentiment toward optical module company AAOI, stating that they still maintain a high-conviction long position and believe that the market's pessimistic expectations for the stock are misplaced.

Their core logic revolves around a structural supply-demand gap in the AI infrastructure chain: they pointed out that the industry is currently constrained by the production capacity of high-end lasers and optical modules, while demand for high-speed optical interconnect from AMD and major cloud providers continues to rise. At the same time, the overall AI computing power ecosystem is still restricted by NVDA-dominated supply bottlenecks.

This view holds that the US has key production capacity advantages in the 800G/1.6T optical module and related transceiver supply chain, but overall supply and demand is still under significant strain, and some high-end packaging and assembly steps rely on outsourcing to Asia.

In terms of performance expectations, the investor mentioned that the company may reach around $560 million annualized revenue (estimated at the ARR level) in 2027, and believes the current market capitalization still does not fully reflect the long-term growth potential. Some key volume cycles may also extend into 2028.

At the same time, the view points out short-term volatility risks, including potential ATM secondary offerings and sentiment swings driven by industry news, and notes that analysis reports and market rumors around peers like LITE may have a linked impact on the entire optical communications sector.

Overall, this long narrative continues to bet on the "optical interconnect bottleneck" in the AI computing power expansion cycle, and believes that the market still underestimates the medium- to long-term growth pace.

BlockBeats reports that on June 17, SpaceX launched options market trading on its first trading day after its IPO, prompting concentrated discussion in the market about its high volatility and high valuation risks. According to Susquehanna strategist Chris Murphy's calculations, current options pricing implies about a 15% probability that the stock price will rise another 50% before September, and also implies about a 13% probability of a 50% decline.

Murphy noted that SpaceX options trading on the day showed significant activity in bullish options, making it one of the top five most actively traded contracts throughout the day. His analysis suggests that large trades mostly have a hedging structure: call options reflect bets on further significant upside, while put options are concentrated on hedging against risks such as supply unlocks, valuation pressure, and a cooling of sentiment after the IPO.

He emphasized that this structure results in a typical state of "tail risk pricing being relatively expensive"—whether buying the upside or downside tail, investors face high costs and asymmetric risks.

Market commentator Peter Boockvar said that the current trading is essentially about "trading narratives and sentiment," not fundamentals. He pointed out that at such high valuation levels, the company will need to deliver sustained growth in the coming years to justify current pricing.

SpaceX's stock price has risen about 50% since its IPO, with market cap once surpassing Amazon and approaching Microsoft levels, sparking ongoing debate about the sustainability of its valuation.