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Price analysis 2/12: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, ADA, AVAX, DOGE

CointelegraphCointelegraph2024/02/12 18:23
By:Rakesh Upadhyay

Bitcoin ( BTC ) has reached the psychologically crucial level of $50,000, boosted by the strength in the United States stock markets and solid inflows into the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades pointed out in a X post that net inflows into the Bitcoin ETFs have been positive for 11 consecutive days .

Several analysts expect the bull run to continue, but CryptoSlate research and data analyst James Van Straten cautioned traders about a possible correction. Van Straten said in a X post that Bitcoin’s total supply in profit is nearing 95% , which “usually marks tops.”

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

While short-term risks of a pullback remain, the long-term picture looks encouraging. Crypto analysis platform Glassnode said in a X post on Feb. 10 that select on-chain indicators are showing signs that Bitcoin could be in the initial stages of a bull market .

Could Bitcoin extend its up move, pulling select altcoins higher? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.

SP 500 Index price analysis

The SP 500 Index (SPX) extended its rally above the psychologically important level of 5,000 last week, indicating solid demand from the bulls.

SPX daily chart. Source: TradingView

If buyers maintain the price above 5,000, the index is likely to pick up momentum and surge toward the next target at 5,200. Although the upsloping moving averages indicate an advantage to buyers, the negative divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) cautions that a correction could be around the corner.

The bears will have to pull the price below the 20-day exponential moving average (4,913) to signal a short-term local top. The index may then fall to the 50-day simple moving average (4,779).

U.S. Dollar Index price analysis

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is consolidating after breaking out of the neckline of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on Feb. 2.

DXY daily chart. Source: TradingView

The upsloping 20-day EMA (103.63) and the RSI in the positive zone indicate that bulls have a slight edge. If buyers propel the price above 104.60, it will signal the resumption of the uptrend. The index may then climb to 106 and later to 107.

Contrarily, if the price skids below the neckline, it will indicate that the bears are trying to make a comeback. The bullish setup will be invalidated if the price continues lower and slumps below 102.77.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin broke above the Jan. 11 high of $48,970, indicating the start of the next leg of the uptrend on Feb. 12.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

A close above $48,970 will confirm the breakout and set the stage for a possible rally to $52,000. The $50,000 level may act as a minor resistance, but it is likely to be crossed. A strong momentum could clear the path for a potential rise to $60,000.

Contrary to this assumption, if the BTC/USDT pair turns down and breaks back below $48,970, it will suggest that the bears are selling near $50,000. That will increase the risk of a fall to $44,700.

Ether price analysis

The bears tried to stall Ether’s ( ETH ) recovery near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $2,507 on Feb. 12, but the bulls did not relent.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The rising 20-day EMA ($2,400) and the RSI in the positive territory indicate that bulls are in command. There is a minor resistance at $2,600, but if that level is crossed, the ETH/USDT pair could reach $2,717.

The breakout level of $2,400 remains the key support to watch for on the downside. If this level is taken out, the selling could accelerate, and the pair may plummet to the strong support at $2,100. Buyers are expected to defend this level aggressively.

BNB price analysis

BNB ( BNB ) broke above the downtrend line on Feb. 8, but the bulls are finding it difficult to drive the price to the overhead resistance at $338.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The BNB/USDT pair dipped near the moving averages on Feb. 12, but the long tail on the candlestick shows solid buying at lower levels. Buyers will try to clear the minor hurdle at $326 and shove the price to the stiff overhead resistance of $338.

On the contrary, if the price turns down sharply and breaks below the moving average, it will indicate that the bears are attempting a comeback. The pair may then slump to the strong support at $288.

XRP price analysis

XRP’s ( XRP ) recovery attempt is facing selling at the 20-day EMA ($0.52), indicating that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price turns lower from the current level, the bears will try to sink and maintain the price below the strong support at $0.50. If they do that, the XRP/USDT pair could slide to the critical support at $0.46. Buyers are expected to defend this level with vigor.

On the upside, a break and close above the 20-day EMA will be the first sign of strength. The pair may then climb to the downtrend line, which is likely to act as a major hurdle for the bulls. A break above this resistance will clear the path for a possible rally to $0.67.

Solana price analysis

The bulls propelled Solana ( SOL ) above the neckline of the inverse HS pattern on Feb. 10 and are trying to defend the level during the pullback on Feb. 12.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If buyers maintain the price above $107, the SOL/USDT pair is likely to accelerate toward $117 and then $126. A break above this resistance will signal the resumption of the uptrend. The next target objective on the upside is $135.

Alternatively, if the price turns down sharply and breaks below the moving averages, it will indicate that the break above $107 may have been a bull trap. The pair may then fall to $93 and later to $80.

Related: Bitcoin hits $50K for first time since December 2021

Cardano price analysis

Cardano ( ADA ) is witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the downtrend line of the descending channel pattern.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls pushed the price above the channel on Feb. 10, but they could not build upon the breakout on Feb. 11. The bears tried to take advantage of the situation and sink the price below the 50-day SMA ($0.53) on Feb. 12, but the bulls held their ground. This shows that every minor dip is being bought. Buyers will try to propel the ADA/USDT pair to $0.62 and subsequently to $0.68.

Meanwhile, the bears are likely to have other plans. They will try to drag the price back below the moving averages. If they can pull it off, the pair may fall to the vital support at $0.46. Buyers are expected to guard this level because if they fail to do that, the pair may dive to $0.40.

Avalanche price analysis

Avalanche ( AVAX ) is facing selling near $42, indicating that the higher levels continue to attract sellers.

AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The first support on the downside is at the moving averages. If the price bounces off the 20-day EMA ($36.27), it will indicate that the sentiment remains positive and traders are viewing the dips as a buying opportunity. The AVAX/USDT pair will then again try to overcome the barrier at $42. If that happens, the pair may soar to $50.

On the contrary, a slide below the moving averages will indicate that the breakout was a fake move. The pair may decline to $32, an important level to watch out for.

Dogecoin price analysis

Dogecoin ( DOGE ) has been trading inside a symmetrical triangle for the past several days, indicating indecision between the bulls and the bears.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($0.08) has flattened out, and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. Buyers will have to thrust the price above the triangle to gain the upper hand. The DOGE/USDT pair may then attempt a rally to the $0.10 to $0.11 resistance zone.

The advantage will tilt in favor of the bears if they sink and maintain the price below the uptrend line. That may start a fall to the strong support at $0.07 and eventually to $0.06. Buyers are likely to defend this level aggressively.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Disclaimer: everything in the article represents the author's point of view and has nothing to do with this platform. This article is not intended to be used as a reference for making investment decisions.

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