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Bitget Research: Higher Than Expected CPI Data Lowers Likelihood of Rate Cut in June, Ordinals Ecosystem Begins to Recover

Jarseed & Aaron
2024/04/11
Bitget Research: Higher Than Expected CPI Data Lowers Likelihood of Rate Cut in June, Ordinals Ecosystem Begins to Recover

In the past 24 hours, many new popular tokens and topics have emerged in the market, which are likely to be the next wealth creation opportunities.

Overview

Yesterday, the United States released its March CPI data that exceeded expectations, further diminishing the likelihood of a June rate cut. Following a brief downturn, the cryptocurrency market experienced a strong rebound, with Bitcoin not only recovering all its losses since the CPI data release but also surpassing $70,000. This demonstrates a consistent consensus and expectation in the cryptocurrency market regarding the halving event.

Sectors with strong wealth creation effects: Ordinals ecosystem and TON ecosystem.

Top searched tokens and topics: Pendle Finance, SOMO, SAGA, and Uniswap.

Potential airdrop opportunities: Mezo and ZetaMarket.

Data collection time: April 11, 2024, 4:00 AM (UTC)

1. Market Environment

Yesterday, the U.S. announced March CPI data at 3.5%, higher than the expected 3.4%, leading to a decrease in the probability of a Fed rate cut in June according to the swap market. Impacted by this news, Bitcoin briefly fell to $67,500, with a general market decline. However, following the end of panic selling, Bitcoin has today regained all losses post-CPI announcement, briefly reaching $71,000.

In terms of BTC ETFs, net inflows of $124 million were recorded yesterday. According to statistics, BTC ETF investors in the United States currently hold 4.3% of the circulating supply. Excluding the amount of Bitcoin that has not moved in three years, the proportion of BTC ETF investors in the United States is approximately 8.4%.

The cryptocurrency market has shown considerable resilience, with strong rebounds following two consecutive instances of higher-than-expected data from the U.S., indicating a firm consensus and expectation for the Bitcoin halving in the cryptocurrency market.

2. Wealth Creation Sectors

2.1 Sector Movements —Ordinals Ecosystem (ORDI and SATS)

Main reasons: With the Bitcoin halving approaching, the Ordinals ecosystem, a new asset protocol on Bitcoin, has shown impressive performance since 2023. The recent Bitcoin ecosystem conference in Hong Kong has brought the Ordinals ecosystem more into the spotlight for Western crypto enthusiasts and institutions. As an important asset within the Bitcoin ecosystem, assets on Ordinals are gradually being discovered for their value.

Gainers: ORDI rose 11% in the past 24 hours, while SATS rose 6% in the same period.

Factors affecting future market conditions:

Ordinals assets are generally lacking in token intrinsic value and are humorously referred to as the BTC memecoin sector. However, as more projects and developers enter, projects with real value will gradually develop within the Bitcoin ecosystem. Investors should monitor the development trends within the Ordinals ecosystem and the token empowerment by various projects.

Ordinals assets are issued on top of BTC UTXO, and the underlying assets include a certain number of satoshis (the smallest unit of Bitcoin). As the price of Bitcoin rises, theoretically, the value of the smallest Bitcoin unit contained in Ordinals assets would also increase, thus, Bitcoin's price movements could also affect the price of Ordinals assets to some extent.

2.2 Sector Movements — TON and TON ecosystem (TON and FISH)

Main reasons: The main reasons for the strong recent performance of TON and its ecosystem, with TON's price hitting new highs, stem from the strong wealth creation effect within the TON ecosystem. This has caught the attention of market players and led to increased participation, pushing the overall market into a rapid growth phase. A significant amount of tokens is held project party, so the limited circulation and surging demand have continuously driven TON's price to new highs.

Gainers: TON increased by 10.5% and FISH by 21.2% in the past 24 hours.

Factors affecting future market conditions:

The TON ecosystem is still in its early stages, with new DeFi projects and memecoins continuously emerging. The wealth effect in the TON ecosystem has attracted investors to buy TON and engage with various projects, continuously boosting the ecosystem's popularity. Investors engaging with the TON ecosystem should monitor the TVL progress of DeFi projects and the trading volume and popularity of memecoins to capitalize on the ecosystem's growth.

Since a large portion of TON tokens is held by the TON Foundation, the movements of these tokens are critical. Investors should pay close attention to the TON Foundation's token management strategies.

2.3 Sectors to Focus on Next — Bitcoin ecosystem (CKB and T)

Main reasons: With the Bitcoin halving imminent, there has been rapid development in the Bitcoin ecosystem. CKB, a project based on the UTXO Stack prototype, is widely favored by the market and considered the best technical Bitcoin Layer 2. Recently, asset issuance protocols based on RGB++ have emerged, gradually generating wealth. T is the threshold signature algorithm token chosen by the STX chain, and with the STX undergoing the Nakamoto upgrade on the 15th of this month, the token may attract the speculative investment.

Factors affecting future market conditions:

1. Sustainability of ecosystem inflows: Bitcoin is another significant development in the narrative of this halving round. With the halving, miners' income will further decrease, urgently needing a thriving ecosystem for income transformation. However, the continuous development of the ecosystem requires ongoing developer input and financial support. Therefore, investors can monitor the capital flow within the Bitcoin ecosystem in real time to assist investment decisions.

2. Exchange listing expectations: Many new asset protocols have emerged in the Bitcoin ecosystem. If they can be successfully listed on mainstream exchanges, it will increase the liquidity of these assets, facilitating buying and selling for investors and substantively supporting price increases.

3. Top Searches

3.1 Popular DApps:

Pendle Finance (DeFi)

Pendle Finance is a yield trading protocol that allows users to split interest-bearing assets into Yield Tokens (YT) and Principal Tokens (PT), allowing market players to develop different trading strategies for various scenarios. With the Shanghai upgrade turning staked ETH into a yield-bearing asset, the introduction of EigenLayer that allows for the restaking of LSTs, as well as the emergence of various bond-based or similar yield-bearing RWAs, Pendle has gradually become the leading yield trading protocol in the cryptocurrency space.

Pendle's TVL has climbed to $4.63 billion, and its protocol token, PENDLE, has been setting new historical highs. The crypto market has recently seen a surge in RWAs, which is highly beneficial for the Pendle protocol. Investors are advised to keep an eye on Pendle's integration of RWAs, as the market potential is huge.

3.2 X (former Twitter)

SOMO (DApp) – SOMO is the official Launchpad Partner of Portalcoin. The gameplay is similar to Pokémon, with main functions including collecting, evolving, and battling creatures, which is expected to attract millions of players worldwide. From an investment perspective, SOMO's combination of mobile gaming and trading experience has the potential to attract a large active user base, which could translate into significant revenue opportunities. The project offers a credits system where participation can earn airdrop rewards.

3.3 Google Search (global and regional)

Global focus:

SAGA (DApp) – Saga is a Layer 1 blockchain that allows developers to create parallel, interoperable, dedicated chains—"Chainlets"—offering unlimited scalability for applications. The project boasts a strong investment background, having raised $15 million earlier. Investors include Placeholder, Maven11, Longhash, Samsung, and others. The project faced selling pressure after its launch and is currently consolidating amidst fluctuations. The token may perform well in the future, making it an essential one to keep an eye on.

Regional focus:

(1) No significant trends in Africa and Asia:

The regional popularity in Africa and Asia is more dispersed. Asia sees keywords like Depin, AI, Solana, while Africa focuses more on specific projects like PI, SAGA, ETH, without forming effective trend-based hot topics.

(2) English-speaking countries and Europe are more focused on Uniswap:

Uniswap – The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has issued a Wells notice to Uniswap Labs, indicating the federal regulator plans to sue DeFi's most popular decentralized exchange. Uniswap's founder, Hayden Adams, commented, "This fight will take years, may go all the way to the Supreme Court, and the future of financial technology and our industry hangs in the balance." Influenced by the SEC lawsuit, UNI tokens plummeted by 15% in a short time, touching a low of $9, with significant market risk volatility tied to the event's outcome. It is essential to stay updated on the developments.

4. Potential Airdrop Opportunities

Mezo – Substantial financing, potential airdrop

Mezo is a BTC Layer 2 project focusing on the BTC ecosystem, helping BTC holders with on-chain transfers and financial management, driving the development of the BTC DeFi system. Mezo recently announced the closing of a US$21 million funding round with participation from industry-leading institutions such as Pantera Capital, Hack VC, and Multicoin Capital.

The official announcement of their BTC asset staking plan and the introduction of a referral system indicate strong airdrop expectations. The project is currently in the early stages of operation.

How to participate: 1. Visit the project's official website, find an invite code on Discord; 2. Enter the invite code, connect a Unisat wallet; 3. Deposit BTC.

Zeta Market – A DEX in the Solana ecosystem with an upcoming token launch

Zeta Markets is a DeFi futures and spot trading platform that allows users to hedge against the volatility and extreme events of the cryptocurrency market effectively. The project has completed an $8.5 million strategic funding round led by Jump Capital.

Zeta Markets' founders recently announced that the token would be launched in May, just one month away, offering the chance to earn platform credits and quickly secure an airdrop opportunity.

How to participate: 1. Connect a wallet to Zeta Market; 2. Deposit USDC; 3. Select an asset and trade futures as the taker, accumulating credits with each transaction.